Millions of Americans suffered significant losses during the most recent federal government shutdown—the longest in the nation’s history. If there were any winners from this standoff, it is the Democratic Party. By forcing Trump and Republicans to take a stance against extending Obamacare subsidies, they capitalized on their affordability theme, which had given them startling electoral victories on Election Day. They made healthcare affordability a key theme during the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections.
If you play chess, the Democratic gambit—seeming to fold to Republicans when eight Senators crossed over to end the filibuster and allow the government to reopen—was a brilliant stroke that will have profound implications as we advance. We can debate later if this was strategic or a bit of good fortune. Six of the eight Senators are not up for reelection in 2026, and two are retiring. Not much courage is needed here. Pundits, expectantly, pounced on this capitulation as another example of Democratic fecklessness and being in the throes of an unrelenting civil war. It is reminiscent of Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope” tactic against boxing opponent George Foreman, in which he allowed him to swing wildly while conserving his own strength.
While President Trump is gloating about another win over his Democratic rivals, he and the GOP appear indifferent to exploding healthcare costs for millions if the tax credits are not extended at the end of the year. This is compounded by his Scrooge-like repeated legal efforts to deny 42 million Americans of their SNAP benefits, which is reminiscent of Mary Antoinette’s alleged saying about France’s poor, “let them eat cake.” While millions of Americans are unable to eat adequately, Trump hosts Gatsby-like parties with billionaires while spending hundreds of millions to build his gilded Mar-a-Lago-like ballroom.
The debate about whether to extend Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act subsidies or tax credits is complex and not easily conveyed to most voters. The subsidy is a tax credit that helps lower health insurance premiums for individuals who purchase an insurance plan through the ACA marketplace. It can be taken in advance to reduce your monthly bill, or claimed when you file your federal income tax return. They are available to individuals up to 400% of the poverty line permanently. The enhanced subsidies or tax credits were expanded in the American Rescue Plan during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the cap to 8.5 percent of income, with no income cap. Many in the high-income bracket have private insurance.
The enhanced premium subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats claim not all who receive premium subsidies are wealthy, and many will be subject to enormous premium increases. I will provide more detailed information in a forthcoming post. Conservative Republicans detest the Affordable Care Act and have been trying to repeal the law since its enactment in 2010. Obviously, its common name, Obamacare, drives Trump into derangement.
What most of the public understands is that the enhanced subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year, resulting in significant increases in healthcare costs for millions. A considerable number of ACA enrollees earn just above the 400 percent cutoff and are struggling to make ends meet, and cannot afford steep increases in their healthcare premiums. They want the enhanced premiums extended. According to a KFF Poll (formerly Kaiser Family Foundation), 74 percent of the public wants the premium subsidies extended.
What lies ahead for many more Americans is deep Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful legislation, which crafty Republicans have delayed until after the 2026 midterm elections. They sought to inoculate themselves against the enormous backlash that would follow as millions of Americans began to lose their Medicaid coverage. They reasonably assumed voters would not react rashly until they began to experience the pain.
The government shutdown and the 2025 off-year election have put affordability squarely at the top of most Americans’ concerns. Republicans are counting on this fading as the midterm elections approach next year. Democrats must keep hammering on this issue, warning the public about the healthcare disaster that will occur unless the House changes leadership, instead of hammering each other. They need to adopt a clear policy platform and message that addresses the needs of the average American.